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Abstract:
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Climate change is an escalating global crisis characterised by rising temperatures, shifting weather
patterns, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. These changes have far-reaching impacts
on natural ecosystems and human societies, with significant consequences for communities worldwide.
This pilot study aimed to establish a Climate Change Jurisdictional Vulnerability Index (CC-JVI) to assess
community-level vulnerabilities in the face of climate change in South Africa. The research revealed
significant disparities in the availability and quality of data across targeted communities, which affected
accurate vulnerability assessments. The key objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of utilising
local-level data for the CC-JVI. However, challenges emerged due to the incomplete and heterogeneous
nature of data at the local level. Most critical metrics for vulnerability assessment are relatively more
available at the district, provincial, and national levels. However, qualitative data collected through Focus
Group Discussions (FGDs) provided rich contextual data that is critical to vulnerability assessment and,
more importantly, identification of entry points for interventions to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
To address these data challenges, the research adopted another secondary data collection technique,
leveraging Statistics South Africa census data from 2011 and 2022, alongside NASA’s online database.
This data was normalised and analysed using various statistical methods, revealing significant regional
variations in climate vulnerability. KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) exhibited heightened variability attributed to
extreme weather events, while Mpumalanga (MP) demonstrated a stable warming trend. Vulnerability
indices categorised the Eastern Cape (EC), KZN, and MP as “moderately vulnerable,” while Limpopo (LP)
was classified as “vulnerable”, emphasising the necessity of localised assessments. Assessments for
2001 to 2022 show that temperature changes were significant across regions, particularly in KZN and MP.
All provinces, including Limpopo, show significant vulnerability despite observable differences in some
aspects. These findings indicated the importance of adapting vulnerability assessments to specific regional
contexts and emphasised the value of integrating both qualitative and quantitative data into the CC-JVI
framework. In conclusion, this study laid a foundational framework for enhancing climate resilience by
developing a CC-JVI that reflected regional climatic and socio-economic disparities. Recommendations
from this study include establishing a centralised data repository to improve data accessibility and
quality, implementing community-based data collection programs, and fostering collaboration among
stakeholders. Furthermore, integrating climate adaptation strategies into existing national policies and
prioritising localised initiatives to empower communities to build resilience against climate impacts. A
phased, iterative approach to index development was deemed essential in ensuring the involvement of
local communities in validating the index. |